Affected by Negative Market Chemical Varieties are in Weak Position
2019-05-15
Affected by many factors at home and abroad, the overall volatility of the domestic commodity market has recently increased. As of yesterday afternoon's close, chemical stocks closed down, PTA and ethylene glycol fell first, the main plate fell 4.40% and 4.35%. Analysts said that the weakness of chemical varieties is mainly affected by negative market sentiment and will remain volatile in the short term. Changes in upstream supply and demand of crude oil and downstream construction are the focus of medium and long-term concerns.
For the recent decline in chemical varieties, Xing Binbin, an analyst at Yide Futures Methanol, said there is no big bad news about methanol fundamentals, but the market has strong negative expectations for cotton, cotton yarn, polyester and other industrial chains.
[Market sentiment is weak, long-term demand is expected to be pessimistic. Textile raw cotton and cotton yarn have fallen for two consecutive days. Chemical fiber raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol have also fallen sharply. Yesterday`s trading hit a stop loss." Zhang Xiaozhen, a researcher at Guangfa Futures Chemicals, said that PTA, in addition to macro factors The fundamentals of ethylene glycol are also weakening.
From the point of view of pta demand, she believes that the current terminal demand is entering the off-season, the order situation is not good, resulting in increased gray cloth inventory, the construction of looms and loaders is declining, and the demand for downstream polyester is also weakening. "Because the terminal demand has been weak for a period of time, it is gradually shifting to polyester. In addition, the raw material pta spot price is strong, the polyester processing profit is greatly reduced or even lost, and it is in a state of storage. The polyester plant reduces production and production load. Drop to below 91.
On the supply side, she said that Hengli's second PX equipment has been tested and the short-term PX price will be under pressure. Due to the large difference in on-site processing of PTA, the probability of equipment maintenance delay increases, and some equipments experience overload production, and the supply of PTA is also increasing. [Previously, some suppliers received high prices and PTA spot prices were high, but there are signs that there have been signs of weakness in the past few months. On Tuesday, it was reported that suppliers have stopped receiving goods, in stock. The quotation fell to around 6,300 yuan to 6,600 yuan per ton, causing the market's pessimistic attitude towards the market to intensify and the market price to fall sharply."
Recently, ethylene glycol port stocks began to show signs of decline, and some coal plants have entered the maintenance stage. In view of this, Zhang Xiaozhen believes that the current domestic production of ethylene glycol is almost at full loss, and does not rule out the increase in overhaul in the later period of loss. Although ethylene glycol has been in the destocking phase since May, inventory is still high, coupled with a reduction in downstream polyester, the overall decline in MEG stocks is expected to be limited.
When talking about the fundamentals of methanol, Xing Binbin said that because both upstream and downstream profits are compressed to a lower level, there is less room for disk prices to rise or fall. [In the short term, the capacity of methanol overhaul is greater than the ability to resume production. There is no new trend in downstream demand. The recent forecast for arrival is relatively large, and the possibility of port inventory accumulation on Thursday is very high." She further stated that In view of the current situation, this week's methanol price has a large probability of oscillating weakening and the oscillation range is between 100 and 150 points. The market has reflected a sharp drop in expectations on Tuesday. The price oscillation range is expected to narrow on the next trading day of the week and may even rise.
[Overall, short-term chemical products will still be affected by market pessimism, and the probability will remain weak." Xing Binbin believes that the follow-up of chemical products still needs to track the actual impact of macro events on fundamentals. In the case of methanol, we must first pay attention to the impact of Iranian sanctions on Iran's imports of methanol. Second, we must pay attention to the actual impact of Sino-US trade friction on downstream products such as olefins, polyolefins, and ethylene glycol. Finally, we must return to the basic principles. Actual commissioning of new upstream and downstream devices, start and stop of upstream and downstream devices, change
From the pta valuation, if the crude oil price does not fall sharply, the pta 1909 futures contract may stabilize at around 5500-5600 yuan / ton. Low operation is not recommended to chase short, empty orders can be considered to gradually stop profit. After the pta market, Zhang Xiaozhen said that it needs to pay attention to the trend of crude oil prices, changes in the price of polyester and terminal business, and terminal orders.
For ethylene glycol, she believes that short-term shocks will be weak, and the downside space may be limited. It is not recommended to chase short-term. We can consider to stop the short-term orders from over-supplied; the medium-to-long term is still short-term, and the domestic ethylene glycol operating rate is high. The arrival of the port needs attention.
